UK Lockdown Addiction: Time To Ditch “The Experts” And Get On With Life…
Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the pub, up pops a new report from SAGE with some very scary projections.
The report focuses on the impact of reopening in the context of the Indian variant (B.1.617.2) spreading in the UK. It suggests that because the new variant could be 40 per cent more transmissible, we are likely to experience a third deadly wave of Covid, even if the government delays the final stage of the reopening. It warns of ‘a further resurgence in hospitalisations similar in size or larger’ than the one January, when admissions peaked at just over 4,000 per day – a rate of nearly seven per 100,000 people. If we proceed with removing restrictions on 21 June, the report warns that the peak of hospitalisations ‘could be double’ the January peak. In fact, the authors tell us they cannot rule out the variant being 50 per cent more transmissible. In that case, they project that hospital admissions would peak in July at about 10,000 per day, with an upper-bound projection of as many as 20,000 per day.
A defender of these projections might argue that, back in January, we were already under significant restrictions and, without those, hospitalisations would have been even higher. That’s a difficult position to sustain given what we have observed in parts of the world with no restrictions. For instance, the winter peak in Florida, a US state which famously removed most of its restrictions back in September 2020, was only 5.4 admissions per 100,000 – much lower than SAGE’s worst-case estimate for a mostly vaccinated England.
Indeed, the highest-ever number of daily admissions for the whole of the US – despite having a population six times the size of England – was just over 16,000. Yet SAGE thinks it is reasonable to present a scenario in which England experiences 20,000 admissions in the middle of summer, and all this after the vast majority of the vulnerable population have had two doses of the vaccines.
So why are SAGE’s models so disconnected from what has happened in the real world? One issue is that its models assume the only thing that impacts on public behaviour is the government restrictions. In reality, the evidence shows that people take fewer risks when infection rates increase. In fact, voluntary behaviour change has a much bigger impact on Covid spread than government restrictions. The failure to recognise this has been a consistent flaw of much of the Covid-19 modelling.
Mad Scientist…
Related to this, SAGE’s modelling still assumes that lifting restrictions has a big, unambiguous effect of increasing transmission, hospitalisations and death. But the weight of academic research suggests that lockdown restrictions have a very limited independent effect. We cannot rule out that the impact of some restrictions can be zero or worse.
An obvious counter-example to SAGE’s assumptions is Texas, which eliminated nearly all state-level restrictions including mask mandates in early March. Despite predictions of doom from many health professionals and politicians, infections, hospitalisations and deaths in Texas have fallen very significantly ever since.
Of course modellers try to include a range of scenarios and it is not unreasonable to model hypothetical outcomes in which lifting restrictions increases infections. Indeed, no one can predict with certainty what will happen to infections in England over the next few months. The problem is that every single one of the scenarios in the SAGE models simply assumes that lifting government controls will lead to significantly higher hospitalisations and deaths.
It seems odd that no one from SAGE stopped for a moment to check the numbers against the real world. Someone ought to have questioned whether 10,000 hospital admissions per day was a reasonable estimate. The real scandal here is that SAGE as a whole decided to let the paper through and presented it to ministers as serious projections on which policy decisions might be made.
Clearly, the modellers have learnt nothing from earlier misguided projections. Most infamously, the predictions by Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial that, without a lockdown, Sweden could have had between 66,400 and 90,200 Covid-related deaths by the end of July 2020. In fact, the actual number was 5,721, less than a tenth of the lowest estimate.
The government needs to ensure that SAGE presents evidence that is grounded in real-world data. Its models must allow for voluntary behaviour change and for the possibility that legal restrictions may not be as impactful as is often claimed.
Just as importantly, the government should instruct SAGE to present evidence not just on infections but also on the cost of the restrictions. It is scandalous that decisions are still being taken based on only one side of the cost-benefit equation – only Covid is considered and the harms of the restrictions are ignored.
Unfortunately, many scientists who sit on SAGE seem opposed in principle to easing restrictions. They are unlikely to change their minds even though policies based on their advice have had devastating implications for business, for public finances, and for the wellbeing and livelihoods of millions of people.
The government now needs to take a radically different approach. If SAGE is not up to the task, might it be time to dispense with its services altogether?
David Paton is professor of industrial economics at Nottingham University Business School. He tweets as @CricketWyvern. He is a member of the Health Advisory and Recovery Team (HART).
Comment:
It’s very clear that there are people in high places who do not want life to return to normal in the UK. As I’ve said many times, the only way we will get our freedom back is to take it back. We’ll wait a very long time if we are waiting for the “experts” in SAGE (mainly behavioural psychologists, i.e. specialists in controlling us) to allow us to live life as we did before that now infamous “three weeks to flatten the curve” back in March, 2020. Either we love freedom or we love Government control. We can’t have both – we have to choose.
Boris seems to be uncomfortable (seems to be) at the prospect of cancelling or curtailing the promised easing of restrictions on 21 June. So-called Health experts – mainly behavioural psychologists, at least one of whom is a professed Communist – are running the country. We could say “why is Boris so weak” (if he’s not play-acting) but a better question is, why are YOU so weak; why are YOU accepting the unlawful removal of your personal and religious freedoms and when, precisely when, will you take them back… What about, say, no later than 21 June?
Remember, too, that where England goes, Scotland is sure to follow. I think (hope) that we’ve all had enough of this false imprisonment, and the stupid restrictions. Had enough, I hope, of being treated like children (don’t forget to wash your hands… Gimme a break!)
So, let’s pray that Boris finds the courage to stand up to his dictatorial “experts” and stick to his promise to end restrictions on 21 June, “allowing” the population to live, move and travel freely. Otherwise, given the meek obedience across the UK to date, I think we can say “goodbye” to life as we knew it prior to the flattening of that (blankety blank) curve…
Comments (32)
It seems that the schemes of the NWO repeatedly revolve around “models” and “modelling,” all of which have proven to be worthless guesswork based on databases corrupted by the old “garbage in, garbage out” rule.
The climate change hoax is based on such false models, and so is the COVID-19 hoax.
I propose we introduce our own model, based on “truth in, truth out”: we project that as soon as the Consecration of Russia is performed in the proper manner (i.e. according to Our Lady’s request), “experts” will disappear from the face of the earth, scales will drop from the eyes of the sheep, the Catholic Church will be restored to her former glory, and a period of peace will be granted to mankind.
RCA Victor,
Once again, “great minds think alike” – seems one of your top commentators over there in the US of A, is preparing us for the next “model” – climate change lockdowns. I totally agree with her.
Editor,
That’s an excellent piece! I especially like her last name….
RCA Victor,
I agree – it’s really excellent and I think she is absolutely correct. Climate will be the next reason for keeping us locked up in our homes.
I take it your name is Ingraham? Very unusual. It’s probably a variation of Ingram which is an English/Scottish name.
Lily,
It’s my stepfather’s name (the variation), can’t take any credit for English/Scottish blood!
Again I totally agree with you Ed but I personally now have my own S.U.V it’s called a Bus . BTW it’s not through choice I use it but through Finance. My we car packed in on me last October after ad spent £ 350 getting it through an M.O.T. Sorry but I only watched the Vid until Lucifers Servant appeared. Dear God I hope I don’t go to the same Place that He’s destined for. Imagine spending Eternity listening to That.
As for Sir Witless, I couldn’t help but notice a certain resemblance to comedian Don Knotts, RIP:
https://static.bedtimez.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/17150558/His-Many-Achievements-20191117150557-20191117150557.jpg
RCA Victor,
There IS an uncanny resemblance to Chris Whitty there! Well spotted! By the time he is due his public award, he may have a similarly slimmed down face – worry can cause that!
I personally think that we should stick to the Experts ,Scientists and ,Doctors ,of whom the Message goes ,Please Don’t Pick Your Nose. Always Let Someone Pick It For You. In all sincerity it’s getting down to that. I may be leaning again off Topic again,but most of these EXPERTS are of the same breed who Always Believe that Israel starts off Bombing Gazza. In otherwords Leftist Idiots, who would have no chance of making it in the outside World. So they sit in their safe Cocoons and hand out orders to the rest of us on How We should Live Our Lives. As an afterthought how much are these Profits of Doom ( and yes av spelt it correct ) getting paid. Ad bet the least Salary amongst any of them will be £250.000 a Year and that’s probably the Guy who goes out for their Brandy. I need not go into my own Medical Problems again ,but it seems easier for a Catholic to get an Audience with Pope Francis than to get an Appointment with a Doctor. Again IF Billy Gates Vaccine is so potent WHY has neither He nor any of His Family taken it. Also WHY do ordinary people who sign up for these Vaccines not told that it’s a Disclaimer they are signing. Also Why after the Vaccine are they told to take Vitamin D. Vitamin C and Zinc which literally cost Pennies after the Vaccine. And last of all why Has Nippy not being telling People that taking these Supplements Help the Immune System. Also going back to another Post . As far as I see Scotlands biggest Health Problem ( I know not of England) is Gross Obesity and one doesn’t need be a Nuclear Scientist to notice that . Just walk down any Main Street in any Scottish Town. So again if Lockdowns are back it’s Churches Closed but Greasy Chip Shops open .
FOOF,
Yes, I keep asking the same question about the powers-that-be – when will THEY get vaccinated? What’s the bet that Nicola Sturgeon will be vaccinated the day after that (real) Catholic is granted an audience with Pope Francis? Yes, we’ll have a very long wait, methinks…
I saw Bill Gates look very taken aback in a friendly interview when the young (fan) doing the interviewing asked him when he would get the vaccine. After an uncomfortable few seconds, he said that he’d wait until all the vulnerable have been jabbed.
Not quite as quick-thinking as one would have expected, but he got there in the nick of time!
Silly Editor, vaccines are for sheep!
And Trix are for…
JD,
I think Scotland’s biggest health problem is that there are not enough people like your good self, sticking pins into the power-hungry balloons of your “leaders.” Sooner or later, these puppets will be hoisted on their own petards. I hope sooner, than later.
Victor thanks for the thumbs up, but unfortunately am not an Expert. I know that you visited Scotland a few years back and obviously you never came across one of these Experts as their everywhere. I mean even President Trump refused to take advice from Nippy ,especially on Foreign Policy which ( in Her view) was one of His Biggest Mistakes. Also we have M.S.Ps . MPs . Local Councillors , all who are payed very handsomely to attend to our every need and everyone of them is an Expert. If you don’t believe me all you have to do is ask them. Of course that’s providing that their working on that given Day . Week or Month. I actually tried to get in touch with my M.S.P. last month but was put through to Her Assistants Assistant who told me that She ,the M.S.P was under an enormous work load . I said I sympathised with Her and just could not understand how She managed roughly 16 Weeks Holidays a year. Still as an Ad says overhere One Has To Have Breathing Space . Going back to my M.S.P. She certainly lives of the Fat of the land literally. Anyhow I digress and back to the Experts one who came to my Factory ( where Believe it or not I was The Engineering Supervisor) to check out on our Main Capacitors which controlled the Electrical Load .I asked him if he required help and he said in His words ” Am an Expert and av got a Degree ” well I heard 2 enormous bangs and thought the Expert had blown himself up. I rushed into the room and said ” What’s up what happened ” again I quote the Expert who said ” I don’t know am not long out of University “. He just stood there petrified. Meanwhile i and other Engineers had to run about mad taking the Electrical load of Compressors Etc some of which were taking much more Amps than required. His parting quote was a beauty he said ” You’ll not Be charged for this visit ” again what I said to him cannot be repeated here. All of this is to highlight the Real Problem with these experts and Politicians. They just seem to arrive from nowhere with no real practicall life experience . I actually worked with a Guy whose Son was 30 years of age, still at university and doing his 4th Degree. O and he was also a Mason with probably 33 Degrees,which is another problem overhere ,but much to much ,to go into it at the moment. Although am pretty sure you get the gist.
JD,
Your capacitor story reminded me of one of my favorite movies, “Back to the Future” – this scene, in particular:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyWqxkaQpPw
(That movie, btw, was the last time Hollywood portrayed Muslim terrorists accurately, I believe).
But getting back to “experts” (I feel Editor breathing down my neck) (and there’s a subtle aroma of Thornton’s chocolate…), that problem over here comes in the form of young hotshots fresh off of the campus with an MBA degree (Master’s of Business Administration). Like your “expert,” they can’t tell their posteriors from a hole in the ground, but they think they know everything.
About all they know is how to make good PowerPoint presentations, graphs and charts. I’d love to do a research project on how many of these credentialed empty suits have been involved in promoting the scam-demic.
Victor I remember BTTF very well ,and your probably correct concerning Moslem Terrorists. Believe it or not but I was in Paris when that came out Having a Romantic Weekend and Sightseeing. And boy did I see some sights . I knew the French weren’t just called Frogs because of their eating habits. But my God that was in the late 80s I was their. And those of us who think that some Scottish Scottish Cities are Filthy have Never Visited Paris. They certainly think Hygiene is the name for British Women. I actually seen a Butcher ( while working in a Shop ) give a Sheeps Head to some Dogs . I didn’t wait around for any news but heard that some French Dogs had died from Salmonella Poisoning. As for Paris Suburbs. It’s no wonder that the French Police don’t go in to them . Man am as untidy probably more than any man in my Town but at least I Always Always Wash my Hands after using a Toilet. Sure even Hitler only stayed 2 Days in Paris.
JD,
I once proposed marriage to a girl, back in those same 80s, who many years later spoke of “her beloved Paris.” Sounds like she might have missed a few things (besides the joy of being my wife…).
Yes Ed I also heard his answer ,I don’t think that His Shareholder would have been very pleased with it either. Gates Shareholder here being his ( am sometimes a Catholic Ex Wife ) Belinda. After all he’s supposed to have made $30Billion at least off of Vaccines and that’s Gross not Net Gross being a suitable word for Gates and all His Evil Deeds . I still stay on Facebook am Banned as much as am on it . Actually the last time I was banned Believe it or not was for just posting that we live in a Godless Society. The reason I mentioned F.B. is I know your not on it and it is actually amazing how many believe that Gates, 2 Masks Fauci and their cronies are putting all of their time into helping the World be rid of Disease. Gates who did a TED talk in 2010 who Famously said that with Better Vaccines ( more Poisons ) better Re Productive Health ( more Legal Murder ) I.E. Abortions. That The Earths population could be reduced by 15 % in the coming years. Now am no Expert and certainly wouldn’t get a seat on the SAGE board but again it doesn’t take a Nuclear Scientist to do the Maths and realise that the only quick ways to do this would either be a Nuclear War , Gates certainly doesn’t want that as He thinks he’s going to live forever ,and 100 years of Nuclear Winters is certainly not on . So the only other way is Poisning the Peasants either by Vaccines Fear or both. Also ad like to know what the Worlds Birthrate ( the True Number) was since The Chinese Disease Fear gripped the World. P.S . I read Victors post about Phillip coming back as a Virus. I remember when he wanted to put Bromide into us The Peasants drinking water to make us Impotent. Probably on hindsight he wished it would have been put into Water closer to Home . So to speak.
Faith of our Fathers,
I love your comments but I wish you would break them down into paragraphs – I get a sore head just looking at that block, LOL! Don’t get mad at me!
That is very depressing that FB people are not seeing through the likes of Gates and Fauci – maybe they’re pretending, maybe they have a code to say what they really mean because FB throws them off the platform if there thoughts don’t fit in with the mainstream.
Lily,
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I suspect that many of those on FB who approve of the elite psychopaths and their plans are bots, just like on Twitter. Red Chinese bots, to be exact.
As for FOOF’s lack of paragraphs, I say he’s been studying James Joyce novels…. 🙂
This is about a woman (grandmother) in Ireland, who is going to jail for not wearing a mask in shops!
https://www.irishpost.com/news/irish-grandmother-jailed-for-weekend-after-repeatedly-refusing-to-wear-a-mask-in-shops-213043?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=trending
She says she only answers to God and then uses bad language, LOL! I can’t see God being too pleased about that, although I think she is right to refuse to wear the face nappy.
Josephine,
That is just crazy stuff. Here’s me thinking that the days of “Irish jokes” would be over, given Woke-ness, but that situation is just screaming out “Irish joke”! 😀
You’ll note that Chris Whitty never speaks of the WHO’s statement on the counter-productive and destructive nature of lockdowns, or of the very real suspicion that the vaccines are causing the new variants, or the fact that there are more deaths and serious adverse reactions associated with the COVID vaccines than with all other vaccines together over the past 20 years, or of the WHO instruction that PCR testing should not be used as a sole indicator of infection and that asymptomatic people who test positive are most likely not infected and should not therefore be forced to self isolate, etc, etc.
This man is a criminal along with Patrick Vallance and all those other so-called “medical experts” who lend public credence to our lying political leaders. They know very well how harmless COVID is. In fact Chris Whitty declared openly on May 11 last year at Downing Street to the assembled press that “for most people COVID-19 is harmless”.
They give the nod to this vaccine experiment on the peoples of nations knowing the potential human catastrophe they risk by their unethical approval of untested gene therapies. For me they are every bit as criminal as Dr. Mengele and my hope is that one day they will be stripped of all medical certification and brought before a bench of judges charged with crimes against humanity.
Athanasius,
I agree with with everything you you have said. Despite Chris Whitty’s statement last year that for most people COVID-19 is harmless, people are more or less being bullied into taking the vaccine whether or not they disagree with it.
You are right in mentioning Dr. Mengele, this Canadian Doctor would agree with you.
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/canadian-doctor-covid-response-is-slowly-dismantling-ethics-established-after-world-war-2
Theresa Rose
My real worry is that the vaccine is deliberately being used to reduce the global population. This is also Dr. Mike Yeadon’s fear, and he knows all about the potential dangers. If it proves true, and I pray God it doesn’t, then 6-12 months from now we may see deaths in the tens, if not hundreds, of millions. Of course it will blamed on a dangerous new variant of the virus and most people will be none the wiser. As I say, I hope in all that is holy that I’m dead wrong about this.
Athanasius I assume like myself you have seen The Evil Eugenics King ,Bill Gates TED talk on how The Earths Population could be reduced by up to 15% by better Vaccination Programs and by Better Re Productive Health. Now WE know what Gates means by both of these ,and it amazed me by how many Either fools or plants in the Audience applauded him. As I said before that’s roughly 1 Billion Human Beings ( except Him and his cronies of course) being put to sleep. Now their is only certain ways you can get rid of 1 Billion Souls. Either by Nuclear War ,not an option even for the now sabre rattling Chinese . Or by mass extinction through either Disease or as the now Former Duke of Edinburgh said ” Put Bromide in The Peasants drinking water and make them impotent “. I personally don’t think many on here have taken the Injection and up until now am one. But we know that Vaccine Pasports are coming and will come fast. We may not be allowed into Shops to buy food. Young ones will be refused a Job. Others not wanting Gates Poison may be fired from their jobs, the list as we know is endless. Probably ending up by we know The Covid Gestapo on Streets saying ” Papers Please ” O and BTW I see that Prince Charlie has taken over the Baton from Phill. Prince Charles now trying to convince us of the Evil of Carbon, What a pair . Phill who wants to come back as a Virus. And Charles who once said over a Public Phone that he’d like to be a Sanitary object. Phil should have used that Bromide closer to home,preferably in his own Brandy. BTW Athanasius I hope to God your wrong also. As we probably all have Family members who have taken Gates Vaccine.
I did wonder if I should have put this link on the Scottish Bishops Diabolical Pentecost thread. But decided to put it here. Father James Altman has been asked to resign by order of Bishop William P. Callahan.
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/breaking-fr-altmans-bishop-has-asked-him-to-resign
Father Altman says: “What really is at play here, dear family, is that other shepherds are offended because I simply state the fact that they abandoned their sheep in a time of need. If this alleged virus was a fraction as dangerous as they say it was, it was all the mere reason to keep our churches open and get you the sacraments so that you stayed in state of grace. They put your eternal souls at risk”.
Theresa Rose,
Well that is terrible news. What a good priest and yet he is being punished. I copied this from the end of that report:
“Fr. Altman is showing priests EVERYWHERE what it means to be a MAN of God! It means putting everything on the line, and being willing to suffer whatever comes in the face of witnessing to the Truth,” continued Hichborn.
“These godless, gutless bishops, who allow the James Martins of the world to spread their festering cancerous rot, say nothing about the filth infesting the Church or those pushing it … but they hamstring, hang, draw and quarter good Priests who dare to give spiritual and moral truth to feed their flocks!” he said.
That is it in a nutshell. He is showing up these godless bishops for the useless worldlings they are. I’ll keep Father Altman in my prayers.
Therea Rose & Laura
The bishop shows his Protestant spirit in the word “resign”, for the Catholic ordained of God only “resign” when they die. Yet another example of a hierarchy lost to the Catholic Faith!
Would like your opinion on Fr Altman as I personally see the Hand of The Acting Pope all over this. I believe that Callahan was given an alternative, either Fr Altman goes or He Callahan goes . O and Athanasius I think he meant what He said and it’s for Fr Altman to Leave the Priesthood completely.
Faith of our Fathers,
I agree, because it’s always in the bishop’s power to move a priest on to a different parish or give him an appointment in the diocesan offices, that sort of thing. So, this definitely sounds like a bishop trying to get a priest to leave altogether. That is totally shocking, if that is the case. I’m not sure about Francis being involved, though, you could be right. One priest in one diocese would be small fry, I would imagine, so I’m not sure he would be too bothered.
It is a while since I last looked at the Remnant Newspaper. Michael Matt talk the evening is titled –
‘Crashing the Gates.’ Cancelling the Architects of the New Normal – Game Over’.
https://remnantnewspaper.com/web/index.php/articles/item/5410-crashing-the-gates-canceling-the-architects-of-the-new-normal
The globalists are making war to control every aspect of our lives in this world and battles need to be fought. We cannot afford to lie down to their tyranny and battle against them we must.
I hope that in the near future we will see the Pope and Bishops Consecrate Russia to the Immaculate Heart of Mary. The world is becoming more desperate for that Consecration to happen.
Theresa Rose
How right you are! Unless and until Our Lady’s request is granted, this world will continue to fall under the increasing dominance of Communism and Freemasonry. It’s tragic to have to acknowledge the fact that we now even have a Pope and hierarchy speaking and acting like Communists and Freemasons – punishment for their disobedience to heaven!
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